French Senator Claude Malhuret Speech (English Subtitles)

The War in Ukraine and the US Ceasefire Proposal

A Geopolitical Game with Major Consequences

The war in Ukraine has reached a critical point. After more than three years of bloody fighting and enormous human losses, the West has squandered the opportunity to enable Ukraine to achieve a military victory. The American ceasefire initiative, recently proposed, could prove to be a turning point – but not in a way that benefits Ukraine or the West. On the contrary, it appears to strengthen Russia's strategic position both militarily and politically.

The West Failed Ukraine – The Opportunity for Victory Is Lost

In the early phase of the war, the West had a unique opportunity to support Ukraine in a way that could have secured a military victory. More comprehensive arms deliveries, faster decision-making, and stronger strategic coordination could have made a real difference on the battlefield. But hesitation, political compromises, and fear of escalation have left Ukraine in a very difficult situation.

The result is that Russia has had the opportunity to consolidate its gains and adjust its strategy. The West has supported Ukraine enough to prevent a total defeat but not enough to secure victory. This has left Ukraine in a stalemate, where the best possible outcome now is a frozen conflict – a scenario where Russia retains most of the occupied territories.

The US Ceasefire Proposal – A Strategic Gift to Russia

The US ceasefire proposal came at a time when Russia had gained the upper hand on the battlefield. Although a ceasefire may appear to be a path toward peace on the surface, the reality is that this initiative primarily serves Russian interests. Russia now holds military momentum that it is unlikely to relinquish. At the same time, Moscow knows that Washington is under political pressure. Trump's conduct is characterized by a combination of unconventional communication, nationalist and protectionist policies, and a divisive leadership style — but worst of all, by his undermining of democratic norms and damage to the United States' international standing.

For Russia, the ceasefire itself is not the goal, but rather the consequences of it. If the US withdraws its support for Ukraine, Europe will stand alone – and that is a situation Russia is more than prepared to exploit. Europe's combined military and economic capacity is insufficient to replace American support. This means that Ukraine will eventually be forced to accept Russian demands – or face being pushed into a much weaker negotiating position.

Russia's Long-Term Strategy – A Political and Military War of Attrition

Russia is playing a long-term game. While maintaining military pressure on Ukraine, Moscow is waging a political war of attrition against the West. The goal is to weaken the political will to support Ukraine over time. If the US ends its support and sanctions against Russia are eased, the Russian economy could stabilize – despite the enormous costs of the war.

The Russians will likely make just enough concessions to satisfy a potential Trump administration without giving up their long-term goals. This means that Russia could retain large parts of the occupied territories, strengthen its military presence, and resume the war once it has rebuilt its capacity.

Putin’s Victory – And the Risk of a New Conflict

If Russia succeeds in consolidating its position through a ceasefire, Putin will present this as a victory at home. The vast majority of the Russian population will likely believe the narrative that Russia has defended its greatness against Western decadence and materialism. This will strengthen Putin’s position internally and reinforce his view of the West as weak and morally degenerate.

Russia’s self-image as a superior civilization – threatened by Western decadence – will be reinforced. The Byzantine philosophy, where fear is considered a more effective tool of power than trust, will be further entrenched. Russia is likely to continue using military force whenever the chance for success presents itself – and a frozen conflict in Ukraine provides just such an opportunity in the future.

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Novaya Gazeta og Dmitrij Muratov donerer Nobelmedaljen til fordel for ukrainske flyktninger

                                                Foto credit: rrodrickbeiler

Den russiske avisen Novaya Gazeta og Nobelprisvinner og sjefsredaktør Dmitrij Andreyevich Muratov, har bestemt seg for å donere Nobels fredsprismedalje 2021 til et fond for å hjelpe Ukrainske flyktninger, sårede og syke barn som trenger akutt behandling. Det skriver avisen på sine nettsider; Novaja Gazeta. Avisa påpeker at det allerede er 10 millioner mennesker på flukt. 

Novja Gazeta ble startet etter oppløsningen av Sovjetunionen i 1991, og ble raskt en viktig forkjemper for demokrati og yttringsfrihet. Mikhail Gorbatsjov, Sovjetunionens siste leder, ble medeier i avisen. 

Den russiske annektering av Krim i 2014 og de russiske myndigheters bruk av militærmakt har ved en rekke anledninger blitt kritisert.

Hver dag forteller vi deg om hva som skjer i Russland og verden. Våre journalister er ikke redde for å få sannheten til å vise deg det.

I et land der myndighetene hele tiden ønsker å forby noe, inkludert å forby sannhetens fortelling, bør det være publikasjoner som fortsetter å engasjere seg i ekte journalistikk.

Novaya Gazeta/News     

 

 

International Court of Justice (ICI) #Ukraine v. #Russia

Credit: Livinus (px)

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) , the principal judicial organ of the UN, yesterday delivered its Order on the Request for the indication of provisional measures submitted by Ukraine in the case concerning;

Allegations of Genocide under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. (#Ukraine v. #Russia).

Ukriane filed in the Registry of the Court an Application instituting proceedings against Russian Federation concerning "a dispute .. relating to the interpretation, application and fullfillment of the 1948 "Genocide Convention" on 26.February 2022.  

In the Introduction the #ICJ summarize the context in which the present case comes befor the Court:

 On 24 February 2022, the President of the Russian Federation, Mr. Vladimir Putin, declared that he had decided to conduct a “special military operation” against Ukraine. Since then, there has been intense fighting on Ukrainian territory, which has claimed many lives, has caused extensive displacement and has resulted in widespread damage. The Court is acutely aware of the extent of the human tragedy that is taking place in Ukraine and is deeply concerned about the continuing loss of life and human suffering. 

The Court is profoundly concerned about the use of force by the Russian Federation in Ukraine, which raises very serious issues of international law. The Court is mindful of the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter and of its own responsibilities in the maintenance of international peace and security as well as in the peaceful settlement of disputes under the Charter and the Statute of the Court. It deems it necessary to emphasize that all States must act in conformity with their obligations under the United Nations Charter and other rules of international law, including international humanitarian law.

The ongoing conflict between the Parties has been addressed in the framework of several international institutions. The General Assembly of the United Nations adopted a resolution referring to many aspects of the conflict on 2 March 2022 (doc. A/RES/ES-11/1). The present case before the Court, however, is limited in scope, as Ukraine has instituted these proceedings only under the Genocide Convention.

The Government of the Russian Federation decided not to participate in the oral proceedings. They contends that the Court lacks jurisdiction to entertain the case. Further "requests the Court to refrain from indicating provisional measures and to remove the case from its list". 

Ukraine and the Russian Federation are both parties to the Genocide Convention.  Non-participation of a party in the proceedings at any stage of the case cannot, in any circumstances, affect the validity of the Courts decision.

The Court concludes that, prima facie, it has jurisdiction pursuant to Article IX of the Genocide Convention to entertain the case (48). Given the above conclusion, the Court considers that it cannot accede to the Russian Federation’s request that the case be removed from the General List for manifest lack of jurisdiction (49).

In its Order, which has binding effect:

THE COURT,

Indicates the following provisional measures:

(1) By thirteen votes to two,

The Russian Federation shall immediately suspend the military operations that it commenced on 24 February 2022 in the territory of Ukraine;

IN FAVOUR: President Donoghue; Judges Tomka, Abraham, Bennouna, Yusuf, Sebutinde, 

Bhandari, Robinson, Salam, Iwasawa, Nolte, Charlesworth; Judge ad hoc Daudet;

AGAINST: Vice-President Gevorgian; Judge Xue;

(2) By thirteen votes to two,

The Russian Federation shall ensure that any military or irregular armed units which may be directed or supported by it, as well as any organizations and persons which may be subject to its control or direction, take no steps in furtherance of the military operations referred to in point (1) above;

IN FAVOUR: President Donoghue; Judges Tomka, Abraham, Bennouna, Yusuf, Sebutinde, 

Bhandari, Robinson, Salam, Iwasawa, Nolte, Charlesworth; Judge ad hoc Daudet;

AGAINST: Vice-President Gevorgian; Judge Xue;

(3) Unanimously,

Both Parties shall refrain from any action which might aggravate or extend the dispute before 

the Court or make it more difficult to resolve.

The Hague, this sixteenth day of March, two thousand and twenty-two

(Signed) Joan E. DONOGHUE,

President. 

The full text of the Order:  Order 16.march 2022

Krigen i Ukraina - den største trussel mot euroatlantisk sikkerhet på flere 10 år

NATOs stats- og regjeringssjefer avga i dag en ny uttalelse om Russlands fullskala invasjon av Ukraina. Invasjonen fordømmes på sterkest mulig måte, og Russland oppfordres til å avslutte sitt militære angrep umiddelbart. Alle styrker må trekkes ut. 

"Freden på det europeiske kontinentet har blitt fundamentalt knust. Verden vil holde Russland, så vel som Hviterussland, ansvarlig for sine handlinger. Vi oppfordrer alle stater til å fordømme dette ufattelige angrepet uforbeholdent. Ingen bør la seg lure av den russiske regjeringens løgner."

Solidariteten med Ukraina understrekes igjen, herunder en urokkelig støtte til Ukrainas uavhenginghet, suverenitet og territoriale integritet. 

NATOs avskrekkings- og forsvarsposisjon vil måtte tilpasses Russlands handlinger. I dette ligger også betydelige utplasseringer av styrker bl.a. til den østlige delen av alliansen, for å sikre sterk og troverdig avskrekking og forsvar.

Statement by NATO Heads of State and Government

NATOs generalsekretær Jens Stoltenberg sa i forkant av det ekstraordinære møtet med NATOs forsvarsministre, at Russlands invasjon av Ukraina, og den militære integrasjon med Hviterussland, har skapt en ny sikkerhetsvirkelighet på det europeiske kontinentet. 

"Ukraina har en grunnleggende rett til selvforsvar, nedfelt i FNs charter; og NATO-allierte og partnere vil fortsette å hjelpe Ukraina med å opprettholde denne rettigheten, ved å tilby militært utstyr og økonomisk og humanitær hjelp."

En rekke konkrete tiltak for å styrke alliansen på lengere sikt vil bli diskutert

"I morgen vil ministrene starte en viktig diskusjon om konkrete tiltak for å styrke vår sikkerhet på lengre sikt, på alle områder. På land kan dette omfatte vesentlig flere krefter i den østlige delen av Alliansen, ved høyere beredskap og med mer preposisjonert utstyr.

Vi vil også vurdere store økninger i våre luft- og marineutplasseringer.

Styrking av vårt integrerte luft- og missilforsvar.

Styrking av vårt cyberforsvar.

Og holde flere og større øvelser."

Stoltenberg understreket at dette vil kreve store økninger i forsvarsinvesteringene. Foruten EU deltar også den ukrainske forsvarsministeren, samt Georgia, Finland og Sverige på møtet i morgen. 

 What is NATO, why does it still exist, and how does it work? [2020 version] :